T&E report shows intermediate crops not a solution for aviation decarbonization

In Belgium, Transport & Environment reports intermediate crops, grown during off-season, are increasingly promoted by European fuel policies as a solution for decarbonizing Europe’s aviation sector. However, T&E’s new research estimates that it would only cover 4% of the EU’s aviation demand for biofuels by 2050. The study by Cerulogy, on behalf of T&E, shows that these crops bring significant environmental risks, and would only play a limited role in the decarbonization of the aviation sector. The sector needs to focus on producing scalable green solutions like synthetic fuels, says T&E.

In theory, intermediate or ‘severely degraded land’ crops are more sustainable than traditional fuel crops as they don’t require new land: they are either grown on existing farm land between crop cycles or on low-quality land. However, the study shows that the claimed environmental benefits are severely undermined if these new crops disrupt crop cycles for food production or if fertiliser use is not strictly limited.

The research also shows that production potential is limited. Cerulogy identifies around 7 million hectares and 3 million hectares of potential suitable areas in the EU for intermediate and severely degraded land crops, respectively. Such areas could produce a maximum 1 million metric tons of bio-SAF, potentially covering 40% of the EU’s 2030 bio-SAF demand. Combined with domestic waste oils, these feedstocks could theoretically meet the majority of the short term 2030 SAF targets. 

However, rapidly scaling these advanced crops presents significant challenges – as recent investigations into Eni’s flagship degraded land crop project show. If grown in Europe, these crops could, at a maximum, cover a mere 4% of EU aviation bio-SAFdemand in 2050.