Brazil’s 2025-26 corn forecast holds at 134 million tons

In Ukraine, UkrAgroConsult reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop estimate remains unchanged at 134 million tons, although analysts highlight increasing weather-related risks. The main concern is declining rainfall in southern safrinha corn areas as the rainy season weakens

Recent precipitation has mainly benefited western and northern regions, including western Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Meanwhile, central and eastern areas remain drier, with above-normal temperatures adding stress to corn crops, according to the report.

To maintain yield potential in central Brazil, additional rainfall will be needed through mid-May, and in later-planted areas, through early June. Without sufficient moisture, the risk of yield losses will increase, it added.

Experts estimate that around 40% of the safrinha crop could face moisture stress, particularly in areas planted later than optimal. The most vulnerable regions include Paraná, São Paulo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso do Sul.